HLTV’s live tracker for the PGL Major Singapore race got an early update when Ninjas in Pyjamas opened Stake Pulse Beat III with a win over Betclic. The result came in the first tier-two event of the Major run-in and immediately moved Ninjas in Pyjamas closer to a spot at Counter-Strike’s next major.
HLTV said Ninjas in Pyjamas can virtually guarantee qualification with a strong run at the event. After the opening win, their chance of reaching the Major stood at 73%. A loss in the opener would have left them at 57% instead, so the result gave the roster a clear early lift.
The win was guided by Martin “stavn” Lund, whose performance helped Ninjas in Pyjamas get past Betclic. HLTV’s update treated that result as one of the first meaningful swings in the run-in to PGL Major Singapore, with the invite cutoff set for November 2 and only three weeks left before teams are locked in.
Stake Pulse Beat III opens the first major qualification test
Stake Pulse Beat III carries an $80,000 prize pool and has drawn several teams with real qualification pressure around them. HLTV listed Envy, Ninjas in Pyjamas, Inner Circle, HEROIC, JiJieHao, 100 Thieves, fnatic, BIG and HOTU as squads whose Major hopes could be significantly strengthened by a deep run.
That field gives the event a direct impact on the qualification race. Every win can push a team higher in HLTV’s projections, while an early exit can leave a roster searching for one last route into Singapore. With the Major field still open, the event is one of the first places where teams can build momentum before the cutoff arrives.
HLTV also pointed out that Astralis, MIBR, Liquid and BC.Game are in the tournament, but their Major places are either already clinched or virtually certain. They are not fighting for qualification themselves, but they can still shape the race by beating teams that are.
That detail matters because the projection model does not only reward teams that are already close to qualification. A win over a higher-ranked opponent can change a team’s path quickly, and this event gives several borderline rosters a chance to add a result that could matter later in the month.
Projected swings for the main Major hopefuls
HLTV highlighted four teams in particular, showing how much their chances can change depending on their finish at Stake Pulse Beat III. The projections are wide enough that one strong tournament can turn a shaky position into a near lock, while a poor result can make the final weeks far more stressful.
- Ninjas in Pyjamas — first place would raise their qualification chance to 97%; last place would leave them at 48%.
- Inner Circle — first place would raise their qualification chance to 99%; last place would leave them at 26%.
- HEROIC — first place would virtually guarantee qualification; last place would still leave them at 71%.
- Envy — first place would raise their qualification chance to 77%; last place would leave them at 16%.
Those numbers show how tight the race has become for teams still trying to book their trip to Singapore. A tournament win does not just add prize money; it can change the math around the last invite spots. For some teams, a first-place finish would all but settle the question. For others, the difference between first and last is the difference between comfort and a last-minute scramble.
Ninjas in Pyjamas are the clearest example so far. Their opening win already pushed them well beyond the position they would have been in after a defeat, and HLTV’s projection gives them room to keep climbing if they string together more results. Inner Circle and Envy also sit in ranges where every round can shift the overall picture, while HEROIC can convert a deep run into near certainty.
HLTV’s projections page is tracking every swing
HLTV said the projections page was updated to show the teams and events with the biggest impact on Major qualification. The page lets readers see which matches matter most and what each team needs to secure a place at PGL Major Singapore.
The update lands as teams across Europe, the Americas and Asia keep pushing for one of the final spots. With the invite cutoff still weeks away, the race is not limited to one event or one region. Instead, a series of LAN tournaments is shaping the field one result at a time, and the projections are moving with them.
HLTV said it will continue following the race through what it called a busy stretch of LAN events. Alongside the tier-one stops at PGL Masters Bucharest and Thunderpick World Championship, the following events are expected to carry the most weight in the qualification battle:
- Stake Pulse Beat III (October 12-17)
- DFRAG Logitech G Pro Series (October 15-18)
- 1win Private Club S2 (October 19-22)
- Digital Crusade DraculaN S7 (October 19-23)
- WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN S9 (October 20-23)
- MaceMedia VOID Autumn Cup (October 20-24)
- Circuit X Curitiba S4 (October 21-25)
- DFRAG invitational (October 26-November 1)
- RLG Tesla Cup (October 27-29)
- Stake Ranked Episode 5 (October 27-30)
- HyperX Retake S13 (October 29-November 1)
- FiRe Last Chance (October 29-November 1)
- Gamers Club Masters VII (October 29-November 1)
- NSTLGA Texas Open (October 30-November 1)
- GLuck Moscow Cyber Games (October 31-November 1)
The opening day of Stake Pulse Beat III already gave the race a concrete storyline: Ninjas in Pyjamas took a step forward, Betclic took the loss, and the projections shifted with the result. With the Major cutoff approaching fast, HLTV’s tracker will keep updating as these LANs decide who stays in the race and who falls behind.
Earlier GAMER2GO coverage has also followed related Counter-Strike 2 qualification stories, including BC.Game’s place after the Major rulebook ruling.
73% after one win is a pretty nice bump for NIP. stavn carrying the opener makes it feel like they got a free early lifeline.
A free lifeline is a bit much. It was Betclic, not a top-five scalp, so HLTV probably moved them because the model likes momentum more than the badge.
Fair, but the model still moved them a lot off one result. That is the point – in this race even a clean opener matters more than people think.
Inner Circle at 99% if they win it all is wild, but that 26% last place swing is brutal. one bad bracket and you’re sweating the cutoff hard.
I think 26% is still not dead at all. One last-place finish in a small event should not be treated like a full collapse when the cutoff is weeks away.
Yeah, not dead, but 26% is still rough when every other team is also hunting points. I’d rather have the 99% number and relax than live in last-place math.
True, 99% is basically the dream spot.
For the guys in that borderline zone, do you think it is better to farm tier-two events like this or save energy for PGL Masters Bucharest and Thunderpick? HLTV makes it look like every LAN swing matters, but I never know if piling up small wins is enough when the cutoff is this close. Also, does a first place here really outweigh one bad early exit later, or is that just projection-model stuff?
Farm the easy points
Yeah, that was my leaning too. I just wonder because these trackers make one event look huge, then the next LAN can undo it all. I guess if the model says a deep run turns 73% into almost locked, you take the points while they are there. Saves you from needing a miracle later.
small wins pay
Depends on the bracket mate
Do you think HLTV’s projection is being a bit too generous to HEROIC here, since last place still leaves them at 71%? That feels like a team that is already close enough that this event might barely matter.
stavn getting the opener done for NIP is huge. In CS2 these qualifier runs can snowball fast when the star actually shows up early.
100 Thieves in CS2 again lol
They are not in the actual qualification scrap though, so it is more about bracket damage than their own spot.
Yeah, but still funny
fair enough, we’ll see
Are the 80k prize pool events actually worth this much for Major odds, or is HLTV just weighting them because of who showed up? Seems mad that one tier-two run can swing it that hard.
From what I have seen, the field matters more than the prize pool. If the right borderline teams are there, a single decent run can move the numbers a lot.
Prize pool is bait. The model cares who can ruin who, not the cash
yeah, that tracks
Why do you think NIP jumped so much from just beating Betclic? Was the opener really that important, or is it mostly because the tracker was already tight?
Because one win is one win
I get that a win is a win, but the gap from 57% to 73% feels bigger than just beating one team. Maybe HLTV is also reacting to the fact that they can basically secure it with a strong run, not only the opener. Still, if they drop the next one, that bump will look kind of fake in hindsight.
That is how these trackers always work though
Yeah, fair point. I just mean the swing looks huge because the race is already compressed, so every result gets magnified a bit more than usual.